US CAPE and q chart

US CAPE and q chart.

With the publication of the Z1 data up to 30th June, 2014 (published on 18th September, 2014) I have updated my calculations for q and CAPE.

Both q and CAPE include data for the year to 30th June, 2014. At that date the S&P 500 was at 1960 and US non-financials were overvalued by 83% according to q and quoted shares, including financials, were overvalued by 79% according to CAPE. (It should be noted that we use geometric rather than arithmetic means in our calculations.)

As at 22nd September, 2014, with the S&P 500 at 1994, the overvaluation by the relevant measures was 86% for non-financials and 82% for quoted shares.

Although the overvaluation of the stock market is well short of the extremes reached at the year ends of 1929 and 1999, it has surpassed the other previous peaks of 1905, 1936 and 1968, as shown below:-
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Comparison of Value, using q, as at 22nd September with Previous Year End Peaks.

Value:
1905 = 1.75
1929 = 2.11
1937 = 1.53
1968 = 1.59
1999 = 2.52
22nd September, 2014 = 1.86

% Difference from 22nd September, 2014:
1905 = 6.46
1929 = -12.00
1937 = 21.53
1968 = 16.54
1999 = -26.22
22nd September, 2014 = 0
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Data for our calculations of q are taken for 1900-1952 from Measures of Stock Market Value and Returns for the Non-financial Corporate Sector 1900 – 2002 by Stephen Wright, published in the Review of Income and Wealth (2004) and for 1952 to Q2 2014 from the Financial Accounts of the United States (“Z1”) published by the Federal Reserve. Data for our calculations of CAPE are taken from the data published on Robert Shiller’s website, updated from data published by Standard & Poor’s and the BLS.

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