Severe Problems Looming for the Bank of Japan.

The Nikkei Financial Daily (Market Eye Column)., 29th May 2007 Central banks try to estimate whether the current level of output is below its equilibrium level. If it is, there is an “output gap” and inflation should not pose an imminent problem. The next question for...

Economic Forecasts and the Stock Market.

The Nikkei Financial Daily (Market Eye Column), 13th March 2007 The distinguished economist John Lipsky, who is First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, recently remarked that the current state of the world economy was so good that we had the luxury of being able to...

Too weak for a liquidity injection.

The Banker (The Bracken column), 1st February 2007 There is a high risk that the next recession will be severe, either by being prolonged or by being unusually deep. The fundamental problem is that asset prices have risen to such high levels relative to incomes. This...

Revised Data Show Their Weakness

The Nikkei Financial Daily (Market Eye Column)., 25th December 2006 Substantial revisions to Japan’s GDP data were published on 8th December, 2006; they show that the economy grew even more slowly than was previously feared, and this applies to any time period chosen...