How Share Prices Fluctuate

Andrew Smithers Published in: World Economics • Vol. 25 • No. 4 • October–December 2024 [original pdf] Key Points The stationarity of the stock market’s value (q) and the mean reversion of its real return are its most obvious and exceptional characteristics. These...

Box X: Pensions, Savings and Investment 

By Andrew Smithers  Published by the NIESR in their Autumn 2024 UK Economic Outlook on 6th November 2024. Introduction  This box picks up on two sessions of discussion involving an invited group of those working in financial services, organised by the NIESR,...

Interesting Times

We Live in Interesting Times.  The Stock Market’s Response to Changes in Commercial Banks’ Reserves.  Recent Experience.   The US stock market has moved since mid-2020 with changes in the level of commercial banks’ reserves with the Federal Reserve, as Chart...

Improving Economic Policy

World Economics • Vol. 24 • No. 2 • April–June 2023 Key Points The consensus model (CM) holds that there is only one equilibrium that needs to be maintained for economic stability. This follows, as a matter of logical necessity, from the model’s fundamental...